Economic outlook speakers: Work needed ahead of full recovery 

Job growth and other meaningful signs of an Idaho economic rebound probably won’t appear until at least mid-2010, but businesses and others can take steps now to improve the Gem State’s ability to capitalize on an eventual turnaround, speakers at the Boise Metro Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Forum said Nov. 10. Forming and strengthening partnerships, focusing on attracting and developing industries that have advantages in Idaho, linking university research to economic needs, and keeping a close eye on the important small-business sector were among recommendations given at the event that drew about 925 to Boise Centre.

Idaho in the past 18 months lost two years of job gains while the Boise area lost 2 ½ years’ worth, said economist John Church of Idaho Economics. It will be about five years before job totals climb to pre-recession levels, and manufacturing may not recover fully, he said.

Worker output has risen to an unsustainable pace, so businesses will have to start hiring eventually, he said. Idaho likely won’t see employment gains until the third quarter of 2010 – about a quarter behind the U.S. as a whole, partly because the state “lived by the sword” of high technology for many of its earlier job gains.

Bright spots include eastern Idaho with its lower unemployment, south central Idaho with its big dairy industry, and a statewide tourism sector that will recover – though related construction isn’t expected on a sizable scale for seven to eight years, except for lodging, Church said.

Boise Metro Chamber efforts to help businesses grow, and to add jobs to the economy, will include creating new networks and networking events as well as new Boise Valley Economic Partnership programs, chamber President and CEO Bill Connors said. The chamber aims to engage small business, entrepreneurial and technology sectors, among others, he said.

The chamber will work to “protect and promote the Boise Valley brand” and “do a better job of telling our story,” he said. “Job one for me is to get out there and tell our story.”

Alignments among businesses and business organizations, universities, governments and others will be key to an economic rebound, said Joe Blake, chancellor of the Colorado State University System and former Denver Metro Chamber president.

Colorado targeted eight industries for cluster-style development and subsequently added two. The state received a large federal Workforce Innovations in Regional Economic Development grant because infrastructure was in place, he said.

“People are focused, have an alignment and are working together,” Blake said. Colorado universities also are aligning and cooperating even as funding challenges persist.

“If we don’t think anew and act anew, we are going to be missing the opportunity to do something in our time,” he said.

The recession eliminated many highly paid jobs in Idaho, contributing to an “underemployment” rate that is 17 percent and growing, said John Hale, KPMG managing partner in Boise. Stimulus impacts skew the rate, he said. Other challenges include value declines on commercial real estate and low interest margins for banks, he said.

Nevertheless, some good things are happening, he said. Companies are forming, the software segment is gaining traction, Boise State University and public-private partnerships are focused on economic development and job creation, and several companies in the Water Cooler project in downtown Boise are doing well, he said.

Idaho should further develop its software industry cluster, which now consists of about 20 viable companies, and develop clusters that center on materials science and on energy, Hale said. Energy could be a large industry, he said.

“Small business is where the action is if we are going to turn the economy around,” said Gary Mahn, principal in Fisher’s Document Systems and former Idaho commerce director. A lack of demand growth means small businesses must keep and add market share by improving their own operations and supporting various economic development efforts, he said.

Boise State University is attracting more research dollars, and much of this research will benefit the Boise metro area, President Bob Kustra said.

BSU students will be central to the university and to the local economy as they participate in the work force, he said.

“We must build it from the inside. We must build it from our own young talent,” Kustra said.

NEW! Online only subscription. 24/7 access to premium online subscriber content for only $79.00 a year!
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP TODAY!

Comments are closed.