Small Business Index rises 

The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Idaho increased to 78.6 in October, from a revised 73.6 in September. A rise in the index indicates more favorable business conditions from the viewpoint of the Idaho small business owner or manager. Calendar 1997 is the base year (100).

Idaho unemployment in the most recent month averaged 8.9 percent compared to 8.8 percent a month earlier and 5.4 percent a year earlier. The latest 12-month decline in jobs, down 5 percent, compares to a loss of 36,800 jobs in the prior year-over-year period. Idaho lost 6,500 jobs in 2008, added an average of 22,300 jobs annually from 2005 to 2007 and gained an average of 7,100 jobs annually during 2001-04.

A higher unemployment rate boosts the index by implying that more workers are available, but job losses drag the index by indicating slower income creation and softer retail spending, Zions said in a release.

Thredgold Economic Associates principal Jeff Thredgold, economic consultant to Zions, said Idaho’s recession cannot conclude without a prior return of U.S. economic growth as well as a return of global growth. Both preconditions are now being met, he said. He expects the U.S. economy to maintain a modest growth pace during the fourth quarter as well as during 2010 and 2011.

“A key to sustainable growth will be how the private sector rebounds – consumers and businesses, with the government then, hopefully, reining in its enormous expansionist ambitions,” he said.

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