Forecast: Idaho housing price appreciation will lead the nation

A new forecast of real estate markets around the nation predicts three Idaho cities will continue to see some of the biggest increases in values over the next year, with appreciation rates north of 8%.

The deciding factor in the strongest markets is the very low housing supply, which is forcing prices to increase much more rapidly than other areas, according to Veros, a California-based real estate analytics firm.

According to the Q3 VerosForecast, released Oct. 16, the strongest markets through September 2020 include Idaho — one of three states with metro areas dominating the 10 top appreciation slots.

Veros said home prices in the Boise City-Nampa (No. 2), Pocatello (No. 3) and Idaho Falls (No. 5) markets will rise 8.5%, 8.3% and 8.2%, respectively.

The No. 1 market is forecast to be Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Washington. Cities in Washington state and Texas also were also solid performers, Veros said of the top 10. The outlier on the list is Phoenix, which has come back significantly since the real estate crash that began in 2007. That metro area now claims a top 10 spot, up 6.8%.

Overall, the Veros forecast predicted that the U.S. average home prices would continue to rise over the next year — likely slower than before — but not all cities will see growth. The company’s latest report predicts that, on average, the top 100 most populated metro areas will see 3.7% appreciation in the next year.

“Veros’ data shows home price growth in 2020 will be slow and steady,” said Eric Fox, the company’s vice president of statistical and economic modeling. “Despite some clear headwinds facing the economy next year, housing fundamentals will prevail. While we won’t experience a boom, we aren’t going to go bust, either.”

The low housing supply in the Treasure Valley is a factor that’s been echoed by many experts on the uptick in values, and the continuing influx of new residents has helped.

Despite new homes coming on the market last month, demand is still outpacing supply in much of the Treasure Valley.

The latest median home price for Ada County is just shy of $350,000, according to Boise Regional Realtors, which tracks real estate data. This was up 9.7 % over the same month last year.