Report: Real estate outlook is positive on several fronts

In one key measure, Boise is punching above its weight on the Emerging Trends in Real Estate Report for 2019.

The report, which was unveiled Nov. 13 at a meeting of the Idaho chapter of the Urban Land Institute, ranks the city No. 22 out of 79 metro-area markets for home-building prospects.

In terms of overall real estate prospects, Boise was listed No. 51 in the high-profile and comprehensive analysis of markets throughout the U.S. and Canada.

Boise was ranked No. 5 among what Emerging Trends describes as the eight-city “Mountain” region. The lineup (from top to bottom) is made up of Denver, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Boise, Spokane/Coeur d’Alene, Tucson and Albuquerque.

In terms of Boise’s commercial real estate health, “There’s no ‘poor,” said Anita Kramer, the keynote speaker, and vice president of the ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. “For (Boise), the trends are primarily ‘good’ or ‘excellent,’” she said to a crowd of several hundred attendees at JUMP.

Many of them are senior real estate leaders who earlier shared their outlook for the sector, which includes office, retail and industrial users.

The money quote in Emerging Trends for the City of Trees was: “Boise attributes the strong flow of in-migration to helping drive economic activity in the market.” The report notes strong entrepreneurial activity adding to employment creation and “the trend of companies relocating from more expensive locations (is) continuing in 2019.”

Focus group respondents in Boise expressed concern about the shortage of construction labor and mentioned that the metro area could benefit from increased infrastructure investment.

The larger outlook report is based on 1,800-plus surveys and interviews with a wide range of North American industry experts, including investors, fund managers, developers, property companies, lenders, brokers, advisers and consultants.

The report, now in its 40^th year, addresses opportunities for developers to meet the housing, shopping and workplace needs across the baby boomer, Gen Z and millennial generations, said Kramer.

Following Kramer’s big-picture overview of the U.S. market, economic outlook and demographic trends, local experts shared perspectives on how they see the market shaping up.

They included Devin Pierce, a partner with Thornton Oliver Keller; Ben Wright, director of consulting services for MoFi; David Wali, executive vice president for Gardner Development Co.; and Bill Truax, owner of Galena Opportunity Inc. and Inflection Development LLC.

Pierce said the region’s industrial sector is very tight and in terms of spec projects, the majority of construction is targeted to tenants needing over 10,000 square feet of space. “They (clients) want energy efficient and aesthetically pleasing” spaces to lease, he noted.

Truax forsees more mixed-use projects in the urban core as a response to rising land prices. However, NIMBY resistance to denser development might hold some projects back, he added.