Singing the Ada blues (The Longer View)

Dear Reader:
This week we are pleased to offer the first column from our newest contributor — Steve Ahrens. Steve is a former political editor of the Idaho Statesman, and recently retired from running the Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry.

The numbers coming out of Idaho’s general election this week were glorious for Republicans and gruesome for Democrats.
But a look inside those numbers reveals some historic gains by Democrats, at least in one part of Idaho, gains that may give Republicans plenty to contemplate over the next few election cycles.
First, of course, any election analysis has to begin with a salute to Republicans for sweeping all the elective offices north of the Senate President Pro Tem — a crushing dose of political reality for Idaho Democrats, who thought this year, at long last, they had the money and organization to go toe-to-toe with Republicans.
For one thing, the 2006 election was the first since 1994 that Idaho Democrats didn’t have to fight either a Presidential or U.S. Senate race at the top of the Idaho ballot. The political planets seemed to be aligned for Democrat successes.
So what do the Ds now have to show for all their hard work?
• Republicans were elected to all five seats on the State Land Board for the first time since 1954 – more than half a century. Instant political history.
• Republicans held both Idaho congressional seats, despite the shocking national reversals that turned Congress Democratic.
• Republicans handily maintained veto-proof majorities in both houses of the Idaho Legislature (28-7 Senate and 51-19 House — numbers that also would be historic in almost any state but Idaho.)
Most Democrat candidates didn’t even protect home court. Larry Grant didn’t carry Payette County. Jerry Brady lost by 4,453 votes in Bonneville County. Larry LaRocco, Bob Wallace and Jackie Twilegar didn’t even carry Dem-friendly Ada County. And Howard Faux lost Bonner County. Only Jana Jones and Jim Hansen carried their home Ada County (and Jim won just one other county in his 2nd District race).
Speaking of “carrying counties” — that’s a brutal picture, too. Grant won five of 19 counties and Hansen two of 26. Brady carried eight of 44, LaRocco and Twilegar just four of 44, Wallace five of 44 and Faux only three of 44.
No doubt about it, Tuesday was the Republicans’ day, and 2006 was their year. Right after such a positive statement usually comes the word “but,” as in, “but not everything went the Republicans’ way on Tuesday.”
Well, it didn’t. Say, in Ada County, where 24 percent of all the souls in Idaho reside. Idaho Democrats have painted a big bull’s-eye on Ada County, and even in this reddest of red states, their strategy is yielding some historic results.
Perspective? Only 29 Ada Democrats have been elected to the Idaho Legislature since 1954. (You could almost make a party game out of this. “Name the 29 Democrats.” See answer below.)
From 1955 (my “research materials” only go back that far) to 1974, no Democrat was elected to the Legislature from Ada County. Even after Ron Twilegar and Dan Emery broke that drought in 1974, there were never more than 3 Ada County Democrat legislators in any one session. Not until 1998 did District 19 became the first Ada County district to go all-Democrat.
Fast-forward to 2006, just eight years into the future: After their shocking Election Day sweep of Legislative District 18, along with their less-than-surprising take-overs in Districts 16 and 17, Democrats now hold all three seats in four of Ada County’s eight legislative districts. Not in the history of Idaho has such a thing happened.
The 2007 session will be the first time Democrats have controlled at least half the Ada County legislative delegation since 1991-92. In fact, the 12 Democrats who will answer roll call on Jan. 8 are the largest number of Democrats ever to represent Ada County in the Legislature.
Do we see a trend here?
To their credit, Democrats have won the old-fashioned way. They earned it, by patiently and carefully laying the groundwork for progress in Ada County politics: the Foothills initiative, the Dave Beiter mayoral campaign, City Council races, hard work on the ground in Districts 16-17-18-19 and more. Those efforts are bearing fruit.
Making Democrat gains in Ada County is good for their party. However, it’s not an unmixed blessing for Ada County voters.
The continuing turn-over, year after year, prevents Ada County legislators from acquiring the seniority needed to move into legislative power positions. Further, with half the county’s delegation serving in the minority party in a 2/3 veto-proof Republican Legislature, Ada County’s potential legislative influence is dramatically diminished.
On a broader scale, as most of the rest of the state remains fluorescent red and Ada County becomes purple shading toward blue, the unmistakable rural-to-urban shift of political power takes on another element: everyone else vs. Ada County. (As if that already-existing undercurrent needed any additional support.)
Unless some coalition-building can be developed, Ada County legislators may be divided, diluted and consequently less effective in representing the specific and, in some cases, unique issues (think transportation and air quality) of voters in this most populous part of the state.
This may sound Ada-centric. It’s really just dealing with political and demographic reality.
While Republicans deservedly celebrate their 2006 election successes, they might well find time in coming months to refine their own plans for competing in the area that has become Idaho’s most bitterly contested political battleground.
The 29: Dan Emery, Ron Twilegar, Daryl Sallaz, Roger Guernsey, Ken Robison, Gail Bray, Karl Brooks, Brian Donesley, Mike Burkett, Sue Reents, Jim Hansen, Sally Snodgrass, Molly Lazechko, John Gannon, Cynthia Scanlin, Pat Bieter, Dave Bieter, Margaret Henbest, Betsy Dunklin, David Langhorst, Elliot Werk, Anne Pasley-Stuart, Kate Kelly, Nicole LeFavour, Les Bock, Bill Killen, Sue Chew, Branden Durst, Phylis King.