Colliers’ conference focuses on commercial real estate market in Idaho

What a difference a year makes. For Idaho’s largest full-service commercial real estate brokerage, 2025 has been a banner year.

“We’ve had a tremendous year despite the uncertainty of some of the economic factors impacting us,” said Colliers Managing Owner Jim Shipman. “Interest rates still remain higher than a few years back, and there are still a lot of questions with respect to the real estate market. But we have certainly seen at Colliers a tremendous uptick in 2025.”

Shipman’s positive outlook was one of many pieces of good news shared during the group’s 22nd Annual Outlook Commercial Real Estate Conference Oct. 14 at the Boise Centre. Close to 500 attended the downtown session, with an additional 1,100 who participated online.

A closer look

“What is important at Colliers and within our business community is that during these times we work with civility, integrity and respect and keep moving forward,” he said of his firm with offices in Boise, Nampa, Pocatello, Twin Falls, Idaho Falls and Sun Valley.

Shipman’s opening remarks were supported by a brief presentation on what is happening in the multi-trillion-dollar world of commercial real estate, both in Idaho and nationally, by keynote speaker Aaron Jodka, who serves as the director of National Capital Markets for Colliers.

Jodka, appearing via Zoom from his office in Boston, credited several factors, including venture capital being at an “all-time high” for the “upswing” in sales volume for U.S. capital markets.

All categories, from office and industrial space to multifamily dwellings and retail were included in his assessment.

“With the exception of hospitality, all asset classes have posted year-over-year increases in volume year-to-date,” Jodka said.

Touching on the notion of potential distress for markets, he noted that the biggest risk is still most prevalent in bigger markets, and that “Boise is not on that list.”

A short panel discussion led by Shipman featuring four key Colliers’ representatives also helped provide insight into the latest trends within the Boise commercial real estate market.

Return to the office

Since the pandemic, one shift taking place locally and nationally is more employees are returning to the workplace from home. Scott Raeber, who focuses on office brokerage services for Colliers, classified the local office market space as “positive” compared to a year ago, as well as having much lower vacancy rates than many other markets throughout the country.

“Vacancies are steady and healthy in Boise at 6 to 7%,” he said. “We have a limited amount of supply under construction. Companies are moving here, but others are right-sizing and going back to their space. We expect the market to stay this way for a couple of years.”

On a national scale, Jodka detailed a steady increase in office vacancies, from 16.6% in the second quarter of 2023, to 18.4% during the same period in 2025.  Miami, Florida, and Manhattan, New York, both at 11%, remain the market leaders from an absorption standpoint. Los Angeles, at 24.4%, and San Francisco, at 31%, top the list of the highest rates in the nation.

“It takes incentivizing and not just implementing a back-to-work policy,” Raeber said of workers return to job sites. “There has to be a conscientious effort and motivation to bring people back and change their habits from over the last couple of years.”

Plus, he emphasized the Boise Valley is loaded with numerous opportunities for companies looking to upgrade their office facilities.

“A lot of subleases are available at affordable and value-driven price,” he said. “It’s been a factor in our market, but not a negative. Most of the space put out has been absorbed.”

A tale of retail

On the retail side, Jodka credits many retailers for having “figured out” how to navigate both in-store and e-commerce sales strategies. Blurring the line of the two, he said, has made purchasing easier for consumers.

“Retailers, by and large today, are stronger than they have ever been. They’ve figured out this world of e-commerce and in-store experience,” he said. “U.S. retail shopping center occupancy is currently at a 20-year high of 95%, a figure that has held steady since the second quarter of 2023.”

Locally, there is a “lot of interest out there” in the retail market, added Kelly Schnebly, a Colliers retail brokerage specialist.

“Retail follows the rooftops, and as we see everything moving west, retail is doing the same,” she said, referring to housing developments slated near the Highway 16 project between Meridian and Nampa. “It is definitely driving a lot of retail interest and home-building interest in that area.”

Another key topic for retailers is store closings and openings, with Jodka noting how stores shuttering locations or completely shutting down, as was the trend largely between 2018 to 2020, has now reversed.

“The vast majority of product is still purchased in brick and mortar,” he said. “Yes, e-commerce continues to grow, but products are likely to be sold in a store.”

In the Boise market, that remains true, with store openings now outpacing outfits closing down.

“Big box stores opening in retail space can provide some opportunities for others such as recreation users and others.” Schnebly said.

And in some instances, a store’s closing can help create opportunities as well.

“This year we have had some notable closings such as JoAnn Fabrics, Rite Aid, Big Lots, a lot of big names with multiple locations across the valley,” she said. “But this has opened up some opportunities for new types of users such as recreational and fitness types who can bring new things to Boise we may not have seen before.”

A merging of markets

One such trend picking up speed in the commercial real estate world is the merging of traditional industrial and retail space opportunities crossing over what are typical industry boundaries.

Colliers Industrial Associate Jack Cosca shared how one owner of a batting cage facility found a new home in a retail center, while historically such outfits typically open in what are considered more industrial locations.

“We went through a whole process trying to find a location and eventually wound up in a retail location because lease rates were lower, parking was available and the space worked for them,” Cosca said.

Industrial influence

In his keynote address, Jodka called the national industrial market “pretty strong,” with Cosca choosing the phrase “distribution market” to classify the local industrial market.

“A good example of that is Tractor Supply’s 865,000 square-foot warehouse in Nampa,” he said. “We’re getting a lot of interest from both Micron-related users and non-related users.”

Additionally, a number of “extremely large” transactions are still in progress, Cosca said. “The common theme with Micron-related users is they are waiting for Micron to be ready for them. We’re seeing good signs in the market with developers looking into Phase Two developments. Builders are getting ready for a good 2026.”

The residential factor

As a commercial outfit, Colliers doesn’t sell houses, but its industry leaders know the value of strategically keeping a close watch on developing market trends, especially in places like Southeast Boise.

“There is now more activity there and more focus on land out in the southeast part of the Boise area,” said John Starr, a Colliers expert in leasing and land acquisition. “South Boise has always seemed to be off-limits for residential development, but with the Micron project we’re seeing a lot of focus on that edge of town.”

Starr also pointed out that new developments in areas such as southeast Boise also come with other challenges, including having a fully adequate Idaho Power substation to supply needed power, a facility he estimates could exceed $20 million.

“When you’re out on the edges, you run into that type of thing a lot,” he said. “To sell them the real estate is the easy part. They then have to order the equipment which could take two to three years.”

In a growing commercial real estate market such as Boise, some remain hopeful that the City of Trees will one day make the leap from tertiary to secondary market status as more and more people discover the secret of the Idaho lifestyle.

Using Nashville, Tennessee as a focal point, Jodka cited affordability, surges in migration and long-term demographics as key factors to whether such a change will happen.