See how Idaho stacks up against other states in dairy production for December

Last week, much of the country was digging out of the winter storm two weekends ago and power was being restored to thousands as another storm was threatening. Lawmakers in Washington were hoping to avoid another government shutdown, as the deadline on Jan. 30 approached by approving another funding measure.

Unlike the frigid weather, tempers were flaring on Capitol Hill as several lawmakers warned they would not support any legislation containing funding for U.S.  Immigration and Customs Enforcement, better known as ICE, which has drawn extreme opposition across the country, particularly in Minnesota. The Federal Reserve announced last week that it will hold its key interest rate at current levels.

Meanwhile, you’d think U.S. dairy farms were in the spring flush. December milk output hit 19.568 billion pounds, up 4.4% from December 2024. The 24-state total, at 18.823 billion pounds, was up 4.6%. Fat and protein were both up from last year which put component adjusted production up 5.9%, according to StoneX.

Production in the 50 states for the quarter totaled 57.8 billion pounds, up 4.2% from a year ago. Cow numbers, at 9.56 million, were up 23,000 head from the July to September quarter, and 202,000 more than fourth quarter a year ago.

November output was revised up 6 million pounds to 18.796 billion, 4.5% above a year ago. The 24-state total was revised up 3 million pounds, to 18.081 billion, up 4.7%.

Output for all of 2025 amounted to 231.482 billion pounds, up 2.5% from 2024, and 222.476 billion for the 24 states, up 2.6%. Cow numbers for the year were up 148,000 head and output per cow averaged 24,392 pounds, up 214 pounds.

December cows numbered 9.567 million, up 9,000 from the November count, which was revised down 12,000 head, but was up 212,000 or 2.3% from a year ago. The 24-state count was 9.138 million, up 9,000 from the November total, which was revised down 4,000 head, but is 222,000 or 2.5% above a year ago.

December output per cow averaged 2,045 pounds in the 50 states, up 41 pounds or 2% from a year ago. The 24-state average, at 2,060 pounds, was up 42 pounds or 2.1% from 2024. The November average was revised up 4 pounds in 50 states and up 2 pounds in 24 states.

California cows put just under 3.5 billion pounds of milk in the tank in December, up 305 million or 9.6% from a year ago, which follows an 11% increase in November. Cow numbers were up 3,000 head in December and output per cow was up 175 pounds from a year ago when it was still fighting avian influenza.

Wisconsin’s December output totaled 2.8 billion pounds, up 75 million or 2.8% from a year ago, on 20,000 more cows and a 25-pound gain per cow.

Idaho was up 5.6%, thanks to 40,000 more cows offsetting a 5-pound drop per cow. Indiana was up 3.1% on 5,000 more cows and a 10-pound gain per cow. Kansas again marked the biggest percentage gain, up 26.2%, on 45,000 more cows and a 20-pound gain per cow.

Michigan was up 4.5% on 20,000 more cows. Output per cow was unchanged. Minnesota was up 3.9%, on 5,000 more cows with a 10-pound gain per cow.

New Mexico, one of five states showing a decline in milk output, was down 4.9%, on 10,000 fewer cows and a 15-pound drop per cow. New York was up 3.9% on 20,000 more cows and a 15-pound gain per cow. Ohio was up 2.5% on 5,000 more cows and a 10-pound gain per cow. Oregon was up 8.9% on 9,000 more cows, and a 15-pound gain in output per cow.

Pennsylvania was down 2.4% due to 10,000 fewer cows and a 5-pound drop per cow. South Dakota was up 11.4%, on 25,000 more cows. Output per cow was down 5 pounds.

Texas produced just under 1.6 billion pounds, up 69 million or 4.7% from a year ago, thanks to 30,000 more cows and a 5-pound gain per cow.

Vermont was up 0.5%, on a 20-pound drop per cow, though cow numbers were up 2,000 head. Washington again posted the biggest decline, down 6%, on 19,000 fewer cows, although output per cow was up 30 pounds.

The latest slaughter weekly data showed 59,800 head of dairy cattle were culled in the week ending Jan. 17, 500 head less than the previous week, but 1,800 or 3.1% more than a year ago. That put the year-to-date tally at 165,600 head, up 8,100 or 5.1% from a year ago.

There’s plenty of dairy in the freezer though exports have kept stocks in check. The Agriculture Department’s latest Cold Storage report showed December butter stocks had shrunk to 199.3 million pounds, down 11.1 million pounds or 5.3% from November, and a whopping 14.96 million or 7% below Dec. 2024.

American type cheese crept to 789.8 million pounds, up 2.5 million or 0.3% from the November level, and up 18.6 million pounds or 2.4% from a year ago. The “other” cheese holdings climbed to 559.9 million pounds, up 7.2 million or 1.3% from November, but were just 468,000 pounds above a year ago.

The total December cheese inventory hit 1.372 billion pounds, up 10.2 million or 0.7% from November, and up 18.0 million or 1.3% from a year ago. There were no revisions in any of the November data.

Speaking of exports, U.S. dairy sailings in November hit 515.2 million pounds, up 13.8% from November 2024. The totals were buoyed by stronger shipments to Canada, South Korea, Indonesia and Australia, according to HighGround Dairy’s analysis, where exports increased by at least 6.6 million year-over-year. Sales to Mexico, the top U.S. destination, however, dropped on an annual basis for the fourth month in a row, down 1.6%. Sailings to China, our No. 2 export market, were up just 0.7%.

Butter exports totaled 25.1 million pounds, up 245.2% from a year ago, second-highest all-time total, just behind August 2008, according to HighGround Dairy, which stated “US butter has been at a sizable discount to global prices for some time, with the largest discount occurring in September and October 2025, when some of these sales would have been booked. Clearly, international buyers have noticed the price advantage. Top markets were Canada, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Australia.”

Cheese exports hit 111.9 million pounds, up 28.1%, and up 20.1% year to date.

Nonfat/skim milk powder totaled 121.3 million pounds, up just 0.1%, but down 11.1% year to date. Dry whey, at 37.8 million pounds, was up 18%, marking the six month in a row of an increase, according to HighGround Dairy.

One factor that keeps stocks low is consumer demand here at home and there’s good news on that front for dairy products. CoBank says “Consumer demand for foods and beverages with high protein levels continues to surge as a growing percentage of Americans focus on increasing their dietary protein. The sharp rise in demand is shifting buying habits and could ultimately transform the retail grocery space. Food and beverage manufacturers representing a host of product categories are moving quickly to respond with new product offerings and position themselves for success with protein-hungry consumers.”

A new report from CoBank states, “This strong consumer demand for protein bodes well for the US dairy industry, given the high protein levels and nutritional qualities in traditional dairy products like milk, cheese, yogurt and cottage cheese. But for dairy processors, the opportunity extends well beyond staple products in the retail dairy case. Dairy-based ingredients are increasingly being used to boost protein content in a wide variety of products including baked goods, protein bars, ready-to-drink protein shakes and whey powders.”

“The dairy industry is in a great position to help consumers meet their protein intake goals” said Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist. “Dairy products have a unique advantage because they contain all nine essential amino acids required in a human diet, making it a complete protein source. We expect more food and beverage manufacturers will take a cue from formulators that have already incorporated dairy-based ingredients into protein-centric product areas outside of the retail dairy case.”

The dairy markets moved higher the final week of January but then cooled. The cheddar blocks gained 9 cents Monday, hitting $1.445 per pound, highest CME price since the day before Thanksgiving, then reversed and closed Friday at $1.3625, 0.75 cents higher on the week, but 51.5 cents below a year ago.

The barrels were bid 10.5 cents higher Monday, hitting $1.465, highest since Dec. 2, 2025, but also reversed course and closed the week at $1.39, 3 cents higher, but 42 cents below a year ago. There were 20 sales of block on the week and two of barrel, the first barrel sale since Dec. 5, 2025.

The Super Bowl is characteristically one of, if not the strongest, drivers of cheese demand and may have contributed to the price rise last week, however, more than likely weather conditions played a part.

Central region milk output is strong, according to Dairy Market News. A winter storm that impacted much of the region two weekends ago contributed to lighter demand for spot volumes of milk from Class I and Class III processors. Class III spot milk prices at mid-week ranged from $5- under to $1-under. Poor road conditions hindered movement of milk and negatively impacted production early in the week. Cheese production was steady to lighter last week, though contacts expected busier schedules later in the week. Retail cheese demand is strong, says Dairy Market News, but contacts say food service sales remain lackluster.

Western cheese manufacturers reported that milk production was meeting contractual volumes. Class III spot loads were tighter in the northwestern part of the region, but enough were secured from outside the immediate area. Cheese manufacturer demand for Class III spot loads was mixed. Cheese output was steady. Domestic demand is moderate. Export demand is stronger.

CME butter was up 2.5 cents Monday, hitting $1.60 per pound, highest since Halloween, then headed back down, losing 11.5 cents, only to regain 9.5 cents Friday and close at $1.58, a half-cent higher on the week, but 85.25 cents below a year ago. There were 39 loads that exchanged hands on the week.

Central region cream production remains strong, says Dairy Market News, and spot volumes were plentiful. Winter weather slowed the movement of some milk and cream two weekends ago and early last week. Class II and III demand was generally strong but somewhat lighter due to storm related downtime at plants. Demand for cream from butter makers remains light, as processors have enough to run busy schedules. Some plants operated lighter schedules early in the week but anticipated busy churning thereafter. Demand for bulk butter is increasing, particularly for loads produced after Dec. 1. Retail and food service butter sales are unchanged. Export demand for 82% butterfat butter is strong and inventories are tight, according to Dairy Market News. Spot loads of butter are available, but inventories are tightening for loads produced after Dec. 1.

Western handlers reported milk and cream volumes were generally meeting the demands of butter producers. Some were bringing in spot cream to max out churn capacity and augment lower than anticipated weekly milk production. Butter production is robust and inventories are building to more comfortable levels, says Dairy Market News. Some contacts reported some off-spec salted butter production due to improperly working salting equipment. Contacts reported that 80% butterfat butter was widely available. Domestic demand is strong. Export demand varies from moderate to strong and 82% butter spot loads are tight.

Grade A nonfat dry milk was the shining star last week, closing Friday at $1.46 per pound, up 13.5 cents on the week, highest CME price since Nov. 15, 2022, and 11.5 cents above a year ago. There were four sales reported on the week.

Powder supplies in the U.S. remain tight, according to the Daily Dairy Report’s Monica Ganley Quarterra, as skim solids are increasingly routed toward alternative uses, rather than being sent to the dryer. The Jan. 28 Daily Dairy Report warned “Strength in the milk powder market is somewhat surprising, given massive increases in global milk output and tepid demand. But the data show milk powder stocks well below prior-year levels in the United States and China. Meanwhile, USDA’s Dairy Market News reports that SMP inventories are tighter in Oceania.”

The Daily Dairy Report adds “Massive investments in dairy processing for other products in the United States and abroad have absorbed the increased milk output and more. USDA’s Dairy: World Markets and Trade report estimates global cheese production was up 1.2% in 2025 and will climb 1.3% in 2026. Similarly, worldwide butter output jumped 2.8% in 2025 and is expected to grow 2.4% in 2026.”

This week’s Global Dairy Trade Pulse saw 5.6 million pounds of powder sold, up from 5.2 million on Jan. 13. The price on skim milk powder was up slightly while whole milk powder moved fractionally lower. Both were up in the Jan. 20 GDT.

Dry whey closed the week 1.5 cents higher, at 75 cents per pound, highest since Dec. 12, 2025, and 11 cents above a year ago, with five sales on the board.

Apple Shamrock Dairy Farms of Townville, Pennsylvania was recognized last week as the 2026 Innovative Dairy Farmer of the Year at the International Dairy Foods Association’s Dairy Forum. The award is presented by International Dairy Foods Association and Dairy Herd Management magazine which called the dairy a “High-tech operation with a holistic approach to managing its expansive 3,500-acre operation, which supports a 1,250-cow milking herd producing 38 million pounds of milk annually.” The National Milk Producers Federation, U.S. Dairy Export Council and Consortium for Common Food Names welcomed the United States signing of reciprocal trade agreements with El Salvador and Guatemala last week, “Underscoring the importance of reinforcing long-standing market access gains for US dairy exporters and preventing the emergence of new trade barriers.”

This article originally appeared on Farmers Advance: Reporting by Lee Mielke, Farmers’ Advance, USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect.