Rising oil prices pressure US futures ahead of Big Tech earnings

Oil prices surpassed $95 per barrel on Wednesday as tensions intensified in the Middle East, pressuring U.S. equity futures ahead of key Big Tech earnings, while the dollar dipped against other major currencies.

Traders also kept a wary eye on the Japanese yen that nudged higher after sources told Reuters that the Bank of Japan was on alert to upside inflation risks that could lead to faster interest rate hikes than markets project.

Brent crude prices jumped 4% to hit the highest in six weeks on concerns about supply disruptions after four oil tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia reversed course in the Red Sea following threats of attack from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, dampening hopes that the end to the recent spike in tensions could be imminent.

“Two weeks ago, oil prices were going down, everybody was saying it was going to go back to $70 or $60 a barrel, and now [Hormuz] is closed again, so oil prices are going up, and everybody is saying it is going to go to $120,” said Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac.

“Clearly, that’s what is driving markets these days more than anything else,” Thozet added.

Escalating hostilities could reignite inflation, drive interest rates higher and knock global growth back to as low as 1.3%, down from 2.9% last year, World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill told Reuters.

Also fueling uncertainty were fresh tariff threats by U.S. President Donald Trump. He said all generic drugs brought into the U.S. will carry a tariff of 0% for two years from Aug. 1, after which the rate will rise to 100% for one year and 200% thereafter. The administration slapped a 50% tariff on some Canadian goods earlier this week.

The MSCI All-World index was marginally higher on the day, kept afloat by a 0.4% rise in Europe’s STOXX 600. By contrast, futures on the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 0.9% and those on the S&P 500 were down 0.3%.

Market focus will turn to earnings after Wednesday’s closing bell from Alphabet, which is facing heightened scrutiny over the delayed launch of a key AI model, and Tesla, which is widely expected to report its first quarterly cash burn in over two years.

Chip stocks that have been key drivers of this year’s AI-driven rally, such as Micron Technology and Nvidia, dropped 4% and 1% in premarket trading.

“Even the slightest doubt about the monetization of artificial intelligence or the return on infrastructure spending could call into question the main driver of the market rally over the past nearly two years,” said John Plassard, head of investment strategy at Cité Gestion.

Yen bounces off 40-year lows

The Japanese currency found its footing at 163 per dollar after hitting a new 40-year low on Tuesday as investors weighed the measures officials would use to shore up the drooping currency.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that the government remains ready to take “decisive action” in currency markets if needed, while refraining from commenting on specific foreign-exchange levels.

The battered yen and soaring oil prices pushed Japan’s imports to a record high in June, though exports also topped expectations, helped by booming demand from AI-related data centers ― and a weak currency that continues to boost overseas sales.

Higher energy costs are complicating the work of central bankers who have also grown cautious in offering an outlook for monetary policy. The European Central Bank is expected to announce its verdict on Thursday, and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision is due next week.

Both central banks are expected to leave borrowing costs on hold this month, but traders expect borrowing costs in the U.S. and the euro zone to rise by at least 25 basis points each by the end of the year, LSEG-compiled data showed.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note was up 1 basis point at 4.64%, after having touched a two-month high in the previous session. The focus will be on a $13-billion auction of 20-year bonds later in the day.

Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter and Johann M Cherian; Editing by Christopher Cushing, Sam Holmes, Amanda Cooper and Anil D’Silva.