Continuous growth and unaffordable homes create mixed market

Across the nation’s housing market, 40 is the new 30.

For the first time ever, the Big 4-0 signifies the median age for first-time homebuyers, the highest age ever recorded according to recent data furnished by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The NAR report cites a lack of housing inventory and longer saving and search periods as key factors impacting the upward age adjustment of potential buyers.

“I remember in my 20s someone told me to buy the most expensive home you can afford because eventually you will get a pay raise and the home will appreciate and be worth more,” said Elizabeth Hume, president of Boise Regional Realtors (BRR).

“He wasn’t even a real estate agent, and back then, I don’t think that was bad advice.”

With two-plus decades of experience selling real estate in the Treasure Valley, Hume has never forgotten those words of wisdom.

“I look back around 2015 and prices here were starting to go up and we had listings that were pricing at $500,000,” she said, “and I recall wondering who had the jobs to pay for these homes at the time.”

Those then-seemingly high, top-of-the market, half-a-million-dollar listings have now transitioned into the median home price in Ada County. As of October this year, that figure sits at $550,000, with most properties averaging about 47 days on the market.

In neighboring Canyon County, prices aren’t too far behind. The median price in the west end of the valley checks in at $425,000. By comparison, the national median home price is $415,000 as of November.

However, whether Ada or Canyon County, for many hoping to buy, the word “unaffordable” applies.

“I was at a conference and someone mentioned the median home price in Miami, Florida, is $650,000,” Hume said. “And I would have guessed that market to be much higher than us. So, in comparison, yes, I think we are expensive.”

Chad Hansen, a veteran, independent agent with the local Silvercreek Realty Group thinks so, too.

“That number or median price needle has not moved much the last couple of years,” Hansen said. “But unaffordable, oh, yes.”

And the term “unaffordable” is being slapped on most markets nationwide, with the dream of homeownership now more a luxury than a milestone for many.

A recent Bankrate analysis has revealed that as many as 75% of all home listings nationally are considered “out of reach” for a median income family earning roughly $80,000 annually.

“I’d really like to see our younger generation get into homeownership, but it is becoming harder and harder,” Hansen said.

Regardless of the age, appreciation in local home values, compounded by interest rates still floating well above 6%, despite the Feds latest slight adjustment, make the possibility of owning a home a pipe dream for many prospective buyers.

“If you go back 20 years in Ada County, the average appreciation rates for homes — figuring in the downturn during COVID, as well as crazy inflation — our market has experienced 6.7% of appreciation year over year,” Hume said.

Yet, for out-of-state buyers, Idaho’s home values still provide a bigger bang for your buck. For the second consecutive year, the Gem State leads the nation in inbound household moves, according to a 2025 Migration Patterns Study conducted by Atlas Van Lines.

Keeping up with such trends, Hansen said he is “quite familiar” with the Atlas findings.

“I saw that report and you have to ask, ‘Why would you not want to move here?’ It’s safe, it’s clean, easy to move from one side of the valley to the other, our weather is fantastic. What Idaho has to offer is so convenient.”

The Atlas report further showed that over half of the moves in Idaho were people coming here rather than leaving. The statistic gels with U.S. Census Bureau data that show population growth in every Idaho county between Nov. 1, 2024, and Oct. 31, 2025.

And “migration into Idaho” is a trend Hansen strongly believes will continue for at least the next decade or two. “With the growth that we have experienced and Boise continuing to be on all the top lists of places to live, I’m not surprised. Boise is and will continue to be a draw for a lot of folks migrating here.”

As for options, the current BRR statistics detailing local market figures through October of this year shows fewer homes added to available inventory compared to September. Most of the new inventory, just over 2,100 in total, hit the market in Star, Meridian and Kuna.

Home sales in Ada County, following slight sales dips in both August and September, shot up 8.3% in October. Kuna (23%), Star (18%) and Meridian (17%) all showed significant increases in sales during this time.

Based on the most current figures, Boise accounted for 36% of the closings countywide, while Meridian equaled Boise’s October sales volume, the first time the neighboring cities have equaled one another.

“October really showed how dynamic Ada County can be,” Hume shared in her brief monthly message outlining the most current market data. “We saw buyers gravitate toward both older, more affordable homes, and new construction in our fast-growing cities like Meridian, Kuna and Star.”

But Idaho’s housing market for transplants is vastly different than for those already residing here and hoping to buy. Especially for buyers classified in the under 40 category.

From hoping for an inheritance or waiting on family wealth assistance, to pooling financial resources with friends and relatives, younger people are exploring a variety of ways to become homeowners. In a recent Northwestern Mutual survey, 70% (seven of 10) of millennials say they are counting on an inheritance to help solidify their futures.

“It’s generational living. Over the last year, I have had a lot of clients that have pooled resources to try to gain entry into the housing market,” Hansen said. “They’re talking with their parents or other family members about how they can actually come up with the financing. A lot of my clients are pooling their resources.”

While he understands the strategy, Hansen is quick to point out that he regularly cautions those considering this route to be sure they have the means and resources to make it work without putting a strain on those who might assist in the buying process.

“I’m not just looking to make a sale. I want people to be able to afford it,” he said. “And to do so without placing the financial burden on the family just for the sake of owning a home.”

Reflecting on her earlier days prior to getting into real estate, Hume recalled utilizing such a pathway to owning property.

“I did this in my 20s because it was a great way to buy a house,” she said. “And I understood at the time that ownership was better than paying a landlord.”

Though the Treasure Valley remains a seller’s market, Hansen also believes that the financial risk that comes with owning a home outweighs renting with no end in sight.

“History has shown that it will become harder and more unaffordable the longer you wait, even in this market,” he said. “Many are realizing they won’t see 2% to 3% interest rates again, and they need to act now.”

A fact not lost on Hume. Initially offered an 8% mortgage on a property she was purchasing in the late 1990s, she realized, after consulting with her father, she was not getting the “best deal” at the time from her lender.

“My dad told me to call them back and get a better rate because they weren’t playing fair with me,” she said. “I did and I got them to knock it down to 7%.”

Even so, today’s rate in the 6% range is still less than the rate many over the age of 40 took on during the past three decades.

“Nowadays, we have a generation of people who had never seen those higher rates that we did back in the ’90s,” Hume said. “For the 20 years or so I have been in real estate, interest rates had been going down and now they’re obviously back up again. It’s a whole generation of buyers that didn’t know how, back then, 6% was actually OK.”

And for many prospective homeowners, a 6% interest rate might just be where the bar stays for the foreseeable future. But looking ahead to 2026, both Hume and Hansen see plenty of light at the end of the tunnel.

“If people believe it is hopeless, I encourage them to talk to an agent and lender because buying a home might be easier than they think,” she said.

An optimistic outlook also shared by Hansen.

“I think 2026 is going to be great. We still have demand, lots of people looking here,” he said. “Businesses are moving in, and development continues regardless of interest rates and prices. I’m really optimistic.”